Analysis of the Brazilian publication O Globo, taken over by Rador:
Ron DeSantis embraces Trump’s policies and would make many conservatives and independents feel more comfortable voting for him
O GLOBO (Brazil), November 10, 2022 – Ron DeSantis is emerging as one of the most powerful figures in American politics. His strong re-election as governor of Florida confirms that the Republican now has all the credentials to be the party’s nominee in the presidential race in two years, whether we like it or not. So far, no Democratic candidate has proven they can defeat him. Joe Biden remains relatively unpopular and will turn 81. Kamalla Harris is still missing. Maybe another strong name will emerge, but that’s not the reality today.
More impressive than his re-election is how DeSantis has been able to grow his popularity in Florida over the past four years, helping other party members, like Sen. Marco Rubio, another winner the day before yesterday in the State. When first elected in 2018, DeSantis won by 0.4 percentage points against a mediocre opponent.
This time he beat a popular former governor by almost 20 percentage points. He even won in the traditionally progressive stronghold of Miami Dade by a margin of 55% to 44% – four years earlier he was 20 points behind. Similar results were recorded in other parts of the state, such as Tampa, which historically votes Democratic.
The big obstacle in DeSantis’ race is another Florida resident named Donald Trump. The former president is expected to announce his candidacy next week. He tries to achieve unanimity in the party. At the same time, everyone knows that the former tenant of the White House is afraid that DeSantis decides to face him. It would be his kryptonite. Perhaps she is more afraid of him than of legal inquiries. After all, the governor is completely independent of Trump, embraces policies praised by Trumpists, has a positive economic record to show, and most importantly, would put many conservatives and independents at ease when it comes time to vote because he’s not chaotic.
Trump, in Tuesday’s election, failed. The candidates he backed in the primaries lost in the gubernatorial and senate elections in Pennsylvania. He was also late in Arizona. In Georgia, the Republican governor, who fought Trump’s bogus fraud charges in the state, won relatively easily. The Senate candidate, however supported by Trumpism, has fallen behind in the count.
Trump’s interventions for radical candidates in the Republican primaries may have indirectly favored the Democrats. Midterm elections historically result in an electoral wave against the president. Joe Biden will probably no longer have a marginal majority in the House, but will only face a fragile Republican majority.
Worse than before, but far from the catastrophe imagined before the count. In the Senate, the majority should be decided in a second round in Georgia, with a reasonable chance of victory for the Democratic candidate.
The lesson of this election for Republicans is that DeSantis would be the best presidential candidate and that Trump confuses more than it helps. For Democrats, that anti-Trump sentiment outside the Republican Party remains strong among the American electorate and that a candidacy by the former president, nerve-wracking as it may cause, may be the only hope — but not a guarantee. – to retain control of the White House for two years. (Translation: Iulia Baran)